Monday, January 8, 2007

More AAPL To Bite?

Just by way of information. I have to add that one caveat to the explosive implied volatility levels for AAPL is that the Q1 2007 earnings report is scheduled to be released 1/17 which is two days before January expiration.

If most investors are betting that Q1 earnings will be great then IV will continue to rise up to that date most likely. So that still bodes well for our credit play which should see some premium degradation with the expected rise in the stock price up to earnings even with a contiuned rise in IV.

Additionally, if one does not want to play the earnings and there is sufficient profits in the position then it would make sense to close that position prior to 1/17. If you hold and the earnings report is better than expected then one could get an incredible IV drop immediately after that report regardless of the outcome.

Just more food-I mean-apple for thought.

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