Monday, January 22, 2007

GOOG And Tech

Cramer keeps sounding the "sell tech" horn based on seasonality/cyclical reasons as well as for profit taking reasons (see today's video here). The latter makes more sense to me than the former. To his credit, we did see some selling in the Nasdaq at this time last year but not that looked like a valley. It seemed to be more profit taking from the January runup as evidenced in the chart below. Regardless of what I say I can't move markets with my comments as he can.

Speaking of tech, I added again to my GOOG Mar 490 Calls lowering my cost basis to 25.86. It will be very interesting to see if the stock can rebound significantly into earnings in 2 weeks or so. The bears and sellers have been definitely ruling the last few trading days for GOOG.

Maybe my next poll should ask, "when will the bleeding end" or "will GOOG close below 450 by week's end?" I'm rather confident most folks right now may be a YES voter on that poll question.

Can anyone help me justify my bullish stance at this point with GOOG's performance down over 31 points from its 513 all-time high since 1/16/07 (that's 5 trading days folks)?

I still maintain, however, that value buyers will step in soon and once the earnings expectations/hype kicks in we should see some rebounding. In fact, I think we might even see some short squeezing soon. Ever heard of the term, "shaking out the weak hands".

Hopefully, my hands don't get too weak.

4 comments:

tom said...

Hang in there on GOOG. Above 475 support it remains a bullish chart and will be even more so if it can close tomorrow green above 50MA which is just above. I have a target of 525 in the days following earnings. Good luck!

Terence said...

Thanks for the words of comfort, Tom. I have to believe that with this much selling over a short period of time there will be buying coming in. That's not a great fundamental/technical analysis but it does have some relevance in light of the current market conditions. We'll have to see how that 475 support can hold and if YHOO and MSFT bring some balance into the bull/bear equation.

tom said...

Yeah, watch that 475 line closely. Hopefully TXN good reaction tonight and maybe YHOO MSFT later will come to your help.

CSCO failed my 28 line I mentioned last week and then not surprizingly your 27 line and today despite good words from GS it couldn't buck the market trend and move itself out of that bear flag pattern it's stuck in. If it can't negate that flag tomorrow once again, get the hell out of there because when the flag support at 26 fails the next stop will be 24.50 and it will get there real quick. G/L!

Terence said...

Check that on CSCO. Thanks again, Tom.